This blog series will be titled and tagged “FAWAB.” I was motivated to write a book a few weeks ago. My only strategy, with no story in mind, was to pick something off a social media site and just write about it. I decided to write a book about “Predicting the Future.” I gave up after 8 pages.
Perhaps I may continue it, but I just thought I would upload it to this blog instead, since I wasn’t sure if I would be able to write 50k+ words on how to predict the future. This series will be in 8 parts since it was 8 pages, and I’m not going to try and edit it. I think it may perhaps strike some inspiration in someone else who reads this. Without further ado:
through probability, and forecasting.
Yes, there may be consequences for being wrong. Perhaps you’re a big analyst for a corporation, and you predicted that a new product will give you 5% growth for the next 5 years, but it gives you negative instead. That’s a huge mistake, and you might get fired from it. Chances are though, that it’s not that the future wasn’t predictable. It’s that it was predicted wrong, possibly due to lack of information. Maybe you didn’t know that your competitor was going to release a top secret competing product just months before you did thus gaining market advantage. Maybe you didn’t know that your company was actually going to go bankrupt, and just wanted a last hurrah. Fact is you probably did a great job with what you knew, and there’s nothing wrong with that. The only thing it says about you, is that you need to do more research, or be better at gathering more information.
This is not science fiction. We are not talking about people with special powers. We are talking about simple prediction. This is a human being (maybe even artificial intelligence) that researches, and analyzes certain facts, and data, who then comes to some sort of conclusion about how the future will be. It’s only the stakes that will determine what people think about the prediction. Most people take predictions with a grain of salt anyways.
The future of a casino can be predicted with simple statistics. By setting the probability of us winning, below the probability of the house winning, for all games, they can predict that they will always be on top. Maybe not against every person, maybe not every day, but over hundreds and hundreds of hands dealt, thousands and thousands of slot machine pulls, and millions of players, the casino will most likely make money off the general population.
If you’re skeptical you may pull out a wild card like “oh yeah, well what if everyone in a Casino wins a jackpot at the same time, for 10 games in a row.” To that I say, what if tomorrow nobody is born? It’s possible. Very, very, very, very, very, very, very unlikely, but possible. Mathematicians can actually come up with a number for the likelihood of these events, but it’s a very slim chance. The chance is so slim that it’s basically impossible.